NIGERIA

Two of a kind: President Yar'Adua and his scheming wife Turai. AP

Just when Nigeria appears to have overcome the problems arising from the leadership vacuum created by the long absence of ailing President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, his purported midnight return fritters away the gains and embroils the country in fresh political crisis.

The celebration was unexpectedly short-lived. Nigerians were still getting into the groove when the gains arising from the filling of the leadership vacuum in the country were suddenly frittered away by the purported return of ailing President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua. The 58-year-old former chemistry teacher had been away for 93 days and incommunicado except for a brief January 12 BBC interview in which a voice claming to be his said he was responding to treatment in a Saudi hospital and would return whenever his doctors so approved.

Yar'Adua had suddenly abandoned his office on November 23, with a spokesman later disclosing that he was suffering from acute pericarditis-an inflammation of the sac surrounding the heart-and had travelled to Saudi Arabia for medical attention.

Based on the brief BBC interview, the Nigerian parliament on February 9 mandated Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to assume power as Acting President. Yar'Adua had failed to abide by the constitutional requirement to communicate his trip to the lawmakers and thus pave the way for the empowering of his deputy to act in his absence. In the circumstance, Africa's most populous country of over 140 million persons was effectively left rudderless, resulting in a foreboding political crisis.

Pere Ayemi-Botu, a traditional ruler in the oil-rich Niger Delta from which Jonathan hails, spoke the minds of most Nigerians when he said that parliament's timely action on the matter "stalling the country from total disintegration and sudden catastrophe is a divine intervention and clear evidence that, indeed, God loves Nigeria."

But Nigerians had yet to finish heaving a sigh of relief when the news came that Yar'Adua had returned in the wee hours of February 24. The purported return (no one has seen Yar'Adua since then, sparking speculations that he was perhaps in a coma or vegetative state) was staged unannounced and executed in a most stealthy manner. Around the midnight of Tuesday, February 23, about 200 armed soldiers and policemen had suddenly appeared and taken positions at the presidential wing of the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, as well as selected streets in Abuja, the Nigerian capital. Their deployment was without the knowledge or approval of Dr. Jonathan, the acting president and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, thus sparking fears of a brewing coup.

To further complicate issues, aviation workers on shift duty at the presidential lounge were ordered to leave while journalists were prevented from venturing near the area.

Airport authorities switched from public power supply to a standby generator around 1:14 a.m. ostensibly to avoid any embarrassment from an unexpected power outage. About 30 minutes later a small aircraft presumed to be an air ambulance landed, followed a few minutes later by a presidential aircraft, both parking at a dimly lit part of the runway.

An ambulance was seen moving towards the two aircraft, just as a delegation of senior Yar'Adua loyalists, among them three northern governors, made to welcome the returnees. While Yar'Adua's wife, Turai, his chief security officer and aide-de-camp could be sighted from a distance, there was no sign of the President himself. Strangely, Acting President Jonathan was nowhere near the airport and was later confirmed to be unaware of what was happening.

Turai is the power behind her husband Yar'Adua. AP

Shortly after 3:00 a.m. the returnees and those who had gone to receive them drove in a convoy to the Presidential Villa in Aso Rock, with soldiers cordoning off the route.

An intense power play began to unfold at daybreak, disrupting government activities and heightening tension across the country. The first casualty was the weekly meeting traditionally held by the federal cabinet from 10:00 a.m. every Wednesday. Jonathan, who had chaired the meeting in the absence of Yar'Adua, cancelled it at short notice upon learning of Yar'Adua's purported arrival and later held a brief private meeting with cabinet members in his own office.

He thereafter attempted to see Yar'Adua (having failed to reach him on phone) but could only see the First Lady Turai, who claimed that her husband was sleeping and unavailable for any meeting.

Meanwhile, Olusegun Adeniyi, Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, had issued a statement in which he claimed that Yar'Adua was still recuperating and had directed Jonathan to "continue to oversee the affairs of state" in the interim. The statement, however, caused more confusion as it referred to Jonathan as vice president instead of acting president.

The next day Nigerian newspapers were awash with stories proclaiming that the First Lady was now in charge. The impact was immediate and decisive, with various groups and individuals warning the Yar'Adua camp to abandon any attempt to exercise his powers by proxy and demanding that the president, if he was truly alive and fit, should show his face and follow the constitution by seeking parliament's approval to resume work.

According to the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties, a coalition of opposition parties, "The secrecy that shrouded his packaged return is a prima facie evidence that President Umaru Yar'Adua is incapable of exercising the executive powers stipulated in Section 5 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria."

The Save Nigeria Group led by Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka highlighted the consequences of the macabre drama, saying: "The manner in which they brought President Yar'Adua into the country without proper clearance from the Acting President, who, as at today, is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, and the various reported acts of intimidation against him in the Villa, pose serious threats to stability and national unity. These acts of dare-devilry and recklessness are open affront to the sovereignty of the Nigerian people and the integrity of the Nigerian state. This is unacceptable."

Articulating the public anger, the authoritative Guardian newspaper said in a strong editorial comment: "Clearly this is not a way to treat representatives of a sovereign government. The minders of President Yar'Adua by their conduct have done grievous harm to the Nigerian people. They have humiliated Nigeria by their sinister penchant for deceit, half-truths and subterfuge. Should a Nigerian president be seeing his people after three months of unbroken absence under the cover of darkness? If he has returned to resume his duties as was hinted in the famous British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) broadcast should he not show his face? Should he not be making a public address? Should he not be apologising to the Nigerian people for serving them so poorly? Our president must be told that he is not an ordinary person; that he is the elected leader of Africa's most populous nation. As an American diplomat reminded Nigerians recently, a president belongs to the people to whom he is accountable. Now that President Yar'Adua has returned, if he has returned, the nation expects him to come out and say something by himself. Nigeria with all its infirmities is not a banana republic."

Bowing to pressure, the Yar'Adua camp beat a retreat, with Adeniyi telling newsmen: "We run one presidency. It's just one presidency and we are all under Mr. Jonathan now as the acting president and commander in chief until the President returns to office fully."

Two days after Yar'Adua's purported return, Jonathan was in full control of government machinery, hosting a closed-door meeting with a six-man delegation of the military junta in Niger Republic, in his capacity as the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Jonathan advised the junta to quickly begin the process of restoring democracy in the impoverished country where the military took power from sit-tight President Tandja on February 19.

"Nigeria," he said, "is concerned about the situation in Niger, because anything that happens there impacts our country, especially the northern part. Nigeria is concerned and determined to make sure that things get back to normalcy as soon as possible."

Jonathan had been elected ECOWAS chairman two days before the Niger putsch, succeeding his ailing boss, whose absence had stalled the activities of the sub-regional body. Apart from ECOWAS, he also received endorsement from several other political blocs, including Britain, the European Union and the United States-all of whom have reaffirmed their support for him following claims of Yar'Adua's return.

Jonathan has also been endorsed by several visiting world leaders, among them immediate past US President George Bush and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, both of whom visited on February 21, and Ghana's immediate President John Kufuor, who visited the next day.

Blair praised Jonathan for "wisely steering the ship of state amidst turbulence," while Bush said: "Sometimes in life, the unexpected happens. We wish you all the best even though we know it is not an easy job. With God's grace and the support of your team, you will succeed."

Kufuor commended Jonathan, saying: "Your knack for diplomacy and skill has helped to stabilise the situation in Nigeria. We want you to know that we wish you well. Nigeria is the anchor nation in west Africa and sub-Saharan Africa and your stability is ours as well. We are praying for your success and I am personally confident that you will succeed."

Nigeria's acting president Goodluck Jonathan.

A delegation of Nigerian elder statesmen under the aegis of the Eminent Elders Group led by former Head of State Yakubu Gowon had similarly endorsed Jonathan. Listing power and energy, infrastructure and security as critical sectors needing urgent attention, the group, one of those who had been in the forefront of calls for Jonathan's enthronement as acting president, urged him "to be focused, courageous, firm, fair, honest and just."

Many more such delegations would have come calling, but Jonathan pre-empted them by banning solidarity visits. He also banned congratulatory adverts but embarked on discreet consultations with various stakeholders, including immediate past President Olusegun Obasanjo, who installed the Yar'Adua administration but recently advised the ailing leader to resign if he can no longer cope.

It is believed that Yar'Adua was rushed home by his wife and members of his kitchen cabinet when they realised that he could be impeached if, like those before them, the six cabinet members sent to commiserate with him in Saudi Arabia were not allowed to see him. The federal cabinet is the only organ recognised by the Nigerian Constitution to initiate the process of declaring a president incapacitated and unable to continue in office. The cabinet had been covering up for Yar'Adua until February 3 when Information Minister Dora Akunyili broke ranks and demanded that Nigerians be told the truth. Akunyili's memo on the issue divided the cabinet and as a compromise, the cabinet on February 17 resolved to send a delegation to Saudi Arabia. The mission could, however, not be completed as Yar'Adua was flown out of Jeddah hours before the delegation, already in Riyadh, could go to Jeddah.

Despite Yar'Adua's claimed return, those seeking his ouster on account of incapacitation are not in the mood to sheathe their sword. One of them, human rights lawyer Festus Keyamo declared: "I insist that the Federal Executive Council has already declared Yar'Adua incapacitated by adopting the resolution of the National Assembly which made Goodluck Jonathan acting president. As a result, I will go ahead with my case which seeks to compel the senate president to set up a team of doctors in line with section 144 of the 1999 constitution to ascertain the health status of the president."

Ambulance conveying Nigeria president Umaru Yar'Adua drives through the Nnamdi Azikiwe international airport in Abuja. REUTERS

On the other hand, three suits have been instituted against Jonathan-all by northerners acting in their individual capacities-who insist that the country's constitution has been breached by making him acting president without any letter from the substantive president announcing his absence from office.

A Zoologist and former university teacher, Jonathan is the first man from the Niger Delta to lead Nigeria, either in acting or substantive capacity. A man who is synonymous with luck, he was born November 20, 1957 and is from the Ijaw tribe, the fourth largest in Nigeria after the Hausa-Fulani, Yoruba and Igbo. He worked in the public service and as a university teacher before going into politics.

Elected deputy governor of Bayelsa State in1999 and re-elected in 2003, Jonathan became governor in 2005 following the removal of his boss, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, for fraud. He was preparing to contest for re-election as governor when he was picked by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to run with Yar'Adua in the 2007 presidential ballot, which they won in controversial circumstances. Jonathan's wife, Patience, was about to be arraigned for alleged money laundering by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission but his emergence as Vice President appears to have killed the case, as it is no longer mentioned.

Jonathan is described by Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, a long-time associate, as someone who abhors corruption and does not make promises blindly. "From what I know of him, he is someone who sees things on its merit and value. Also from our interactions, I discovered that he has a very calm and firm personality as far as matters of state is concerned. But let no one make mistake that he could be somebody to be pushed around, because he has clearly demonstrated that he has the ability and capacity to work. I see him as well-intentioned, well-disposed person and very passionate about Nigeria," Abaribe said.

Jonathan's priorities include accountability and the fight against corruption, improving on the country's abysmal power supply, developing and sustaining peace in the restive Niger Delta, working for continued economic growth and development, and electoral reform to ensure free and fair general elections in 2011.

His promise to conduct a credible ballot next year is being taken seriously in view of the credible nature of the two elections so far conducted under his watch-the governorship election in the south-eastern state of Anambra and a local ballot in Edo State in the Niger Delta. The PDP, which prides itself as the biggest political party in Africa, lost in both elections after Jonathan ordered the police and the Independent National Electoral Commission to ensure that there was no rigging.

Whether Jonathan would have an enabling environment to repeat that feat and to actualise his goals as acting president is debatable in view of the formidable forces against him. Such forces, mainly from the north, fear that if Jonathan is allowed to excel in his present capacity, it could embolden him to run for president next year, thereby denying the region the opportunity of enjoying two consecutive presidential tenures as did the south under Obasanjo.

Handicapped by pressure from such forces, Jonathan has refrained from dissolving and reconstituting the cabinet assembled by Yar'Adua so as not to rock the boat. The cabinet is filled with largely indolent ministers whom many political analysts say Jonathan must sack if he is to make any meaningful difference. Forcibly brought together in 1904 by British colonialists, Nigeria rests on tribal and religious (Christian/Muslim) pillars, and any careless mistake could lead to trouble of monumental proportions.

Thanks to the several contending forces propelled by selfish rather than national interest, whoever is in power must constantly watch his back even to the pint of distraction. This is already happening to Jonathan. Barely a week after he assumed power as acting president, his spokesman cried out over an alleged plot by detractors to smear his image and pull him down. That same weekend, there were reports that security agents had uncovered a plot to poison him.

To add to the discomfiture of the acting president, the chief of army staff, a northerner, was reported as saying that he owes his allegiance only to Yar'Adua. Though he has vehemently denied this and has reassured that the military won't interfere in the political process, not everybody believes him.

Warning of dire consequences if any harm should befall their son or if he is unconstitutionally prevented from serving either as acting or substantive president, Jonathan's Niger Delta kinsmen under the umbrella of the South-South Elders and Leaders Forum warned late February: "The Nigerian Constitution is what binds all of us together. If it is subverted, then there is no basis of our continued mutual existence. Therefore, the people of the South-South will have no other option than to break away from Nigeria. We cannot remain in a country where we are regarded as second class citizens."

Elements of the Niger Delta militants have also warned of their readiness to resume the armed struggle suspended under Yar'Adua's amnesty programme that saw them surrendering their weapons from August 6 to October 4 last year.

Lamenting the air of uncertainty in the country, Senate President David Mark said February 25 in a goodwill message to Muslims on the occasion of Eid el-Maulud: "This period of uncertainty calls for prayers and expression of genuine love to one another irrespective of different religious or political leanings." He however said he was convinced that "this situation would be resolved in the best interest of the nation."

The plane carrying Nigeria's president Umaru Yar'Adua arrives at the Nnamdi Azikiwe international airport in Abuja. REUTERS

Seeking to prevent a future occurrence of the kind of crisis sparked by Yar'Adua's refusal to communicate his medical trip to parliament, the Senate a few hours after Yar'Adua was reported to have returned from his medical vacation voted to amend the provisions of section 145 and 190 of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution. The amendments make it compulsory for a president to transmit a letter to the leadership of the National Assembly to enable the vice president act "whenever the president is proceeding on vacation or is unable to discharge the function of his office."

The bill, which was first read by the senate on February 17, also empowers the National Assembly to pass a resolution empowering the vice president to act on behalf of the president if there is a failure to transmit such letter within 14 days of his departure. The Senators have in the meantime claimed ignorance of Yar'Adua's return pending when he transmits a letter in this regard to the National Assembly.

The import of the tragic-comic events of the past few weeks and months is not lost on Jonathan, who is appealing to patriotic sentiments to see Africa's wobbling giant through this difficult period on the eve of the country's golden jubilee of independence on October 1. "It is at times like this that all patriots must rise to the occasion, and place the interest of the country above every other consideration," Jonathan said in a statement. "We have only one country that we can call our own; we must therefore single mindedly pursue our national interest at all times," he added.

Though equally apprehensive, the international community is also hoping for the best way out of the crisis. As Johnnie Carson, the US Under-Secretary of State for African Affairs, pointed out in a recent statement: "Nigeria is an extraordinarily important country to its friends and partners, and all of those in positions of responsibility should put the health of the President and the best interests of the country and people of Nigeria above personal ambition or gain. As a nation of 150 million people, Nigeria's democracy and its continued adherence to constitutional rule should be the highest priority."